⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Leyton Orient 1–3 Barnsley

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient win39%2.35
Barnsley win34%2.70
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient +053%1.80
Barnsley +047%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽David McGoldrick · Barnsley
20'⚽Dylan Levitt · Leyton Orient
49'🟨Adam Phillips · Barnsley
53'⚽David McGoldrick · Barnsley
62'⚽David McGoldrick · Barnsley
90'🟨Azeem Abdulai · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots10
4On target5
5Corners1
8Fouls16
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientBarnsley
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrisbane Road
coach days211.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.207.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.390.47
elo1517.331513.00
elo momentum (last 5)-34.05-10.81
eye test v1-0.640.18
eye trend v10.67-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)55.9051.20
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.820.54
league points36.0041.00
league rank20.0015.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.0016.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)53.4053.60
rest days6.906.90
scorer concentration0.380.27
season ppg1.131.37
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2014.20
skill v1-0.430.13
solidity v1-0.47-0.79
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
state index-0.58-0.41
sterile dominance v10.540.12
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.611.58
xg for avg (last 5)0.981.34