← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Parkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Burton win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Stockport |
| 47' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 55' | ⚽ | George Evans · Burton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ethan Pye · Stockport |
| 64' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Adama Sidibeh · Stockport |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lewis Bate · Stockport |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 207.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.13 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1400.39 | 1562.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.78 | 6.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |