← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Port Vale win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Port Vale +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 53' | 🟨 | Benn Ward · Reading |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jeriel Dorsett · Reading |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 204.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1344.08 | 1516.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.07 | 17.02 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 31.41 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |