← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Swallow
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Exeter win | 33% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Peterboro −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
| 19' | ⚽ | Patryk Sykut · Peterboro |
| 24' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 79' | ⚽ | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1532.91 | 1527.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.30 | -24.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -1.27 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.10 |