← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Northampton win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Northampton +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Craig · Leyton Orient |
| 47' | ⚽ | James Morris · Leyton Orient |
| 60' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Northampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Will Dennis · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 51.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1464.79 | 1506.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.67 | -52.61 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -1.68 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.52 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.90 |