← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Rotherham win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Jay McGrath · Doncaster |
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 10' | 🟨 | Shaun McWilliams · Rotherham |
| 17' | 🟨 | Neill Byrne · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kian Spence · Rotherham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Brandon Hanlan · Doncaster |
| 68' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Gray · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1469.07 | 1514.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.50 | 19.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.60 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| league points | 31.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |