← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Plymouth win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 31' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 33' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 34' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 37' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
| 43' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Osho · Cardiff |
| 67' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 4.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1513.04 | 1614.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.74 | 48.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.13 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 43.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.93 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.04 |