← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Port Vale win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 10' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 15' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 19' | ⚽ | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 24' | ⚽ | Harry Cornick · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andre Gray · Port Vale |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 687.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1449.99 | 1349.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.98 | -21.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 10.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |