← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 69% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Northampton win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Northampton −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ryan One · Lincoln |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 56' | 🟥 | Jack Vale · Northampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ivan Varfolomeev · Lincoln |
| 75' | ⚽ | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Perkins · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 13 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 200.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1662.31 | 1471.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.56 | 1.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 62.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |