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Doncaster 1–0 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Tue, Feb 17, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Stockbridge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Doncaster win37%2.50
Huddersfield win36%2.57
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Doncaster +051%1.88
Huddersfield +049%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.85
Over49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Neill Byrne · Doncaster
33'🟨Lee Nicholls · Huddersfield
34'⚽ (pen)Luke Molyneux · Doncaster
64'🟨Robbie Gotts · Doncaster
75'🟨Owen Bailey · Doncaster
88'🟨Luke Molyneux · Doncaster

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots12
2On target0
0Corners5
16Fouls16
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDoncasterHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.64
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEco-Power Stadium
coach days200.00200.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)9.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.702.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.54
elo1504.601543.62
elo momentum (last 5)8.9317.70
eye test v10.39-0.72
eye trend v1-0.42-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)54.0053.40
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v1β€”0.69
league points33.0049.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0068.60
possession avg (last 5)43.4044.20
rest days10.203.30
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg1.101.53
shot diff avg (last 5)2.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0010.60
skill v1-1.56-1.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad ageβ€”25.36
state index-0.150.07
sterile dominance v1-1.66-0.79
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.350.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80