← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Bolton win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ivan Varfolomeev · Lincoln |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Bolton |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johnny Kenny · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 197.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1665.83 | 1597.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.67 | 30.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 61.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.81 |