← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Luton win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Luton −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 13' | 🟨 | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 18' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 37' | ⚽ | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 42' | ⚽ | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nathan Trott · Cardiff |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 197.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.71 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1595.05 | 1524.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.27 | 3.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.52 |
| league points | 63.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.93 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 196.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.33 |