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Barnsley 3–3 AFC Wimbledon

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win48%1.91
AFC Wimbledon win26%3.50
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AFC Wimbledon −0.553%1.83
Barnsley −0.547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽David McGoldrick · Barnsley
14'⚽Tom Bradshaw · Barnsley
25'⚽Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon
27'⚽Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon
31'🟨Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley
62'🟨Jonathan Bland · Barnsley
74'⚽Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon
87'⚽Scott Banks · Barnsley

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
18Shots9
7On target4
10Corners5
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarnsleyAFC Wimbledon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.20
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.18
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.660.69
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOakwell
coach days197.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.48
elo1513.731505.15
elo momentum (last 5)-6.321.94
eye test v1-0.07-0.89
eye trend v10.590.52
first sub minute (last 10)49.4065.10
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.560.76
league points37.0038.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)46.4049.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.310.36
season ppg1.371.31
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v1-0.67-0.50
solidity v1-0.58-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.20
state index-0.46-0.06
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.591.65
xg for avg (last 5)0.891.39