← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Rotherham win | 28% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 21' | 🟥 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 41' | 🟨 | William Fish · Cardiff |
| 43' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 58' | ⚽ | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
| 72' | 🟨 | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 86' | 🟨 | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Isaak Davies · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 4.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1493.63 | 1578.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.09 | 27.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.80 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |