← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 40% | 2.32 |
| Plymouth win | 33% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Plymouth +0 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Wes Harding · Plymouth |
| 11' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ivan Varfolomeev · Lincoln |
| 38' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 58' | 🟨 | Owen Oseni · Plymouth |
| 65' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan One · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan One · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1481.24 | 1653.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.47 | 34.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 1.56 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.36 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.44 | 1.87 |