⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Peterboro 6–1 Wigan

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Parkinson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win43%2.15
Wigan win30%3.10
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan βˆ’0.2551%1.90
Peterboro βˆ’0.2549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
9'⚽Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
27'⚽Joe Taylor · Wigan
41'βš½β€” Β· Peterboro
43'🟨Callum Wright · Wigan
66'🟨Christian Saydee · Wigan
68'⚽Harry Leonard · Peterboro
82'🟨Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
82'🟨Maleace Asamoah · Wigan
84'⚽Oluwalopemiwa Aderoju · Peterboro
90'⚽Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
11Shots11
6On target5
3Corners10
7Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroWigan
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)3.000.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days190.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.608.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.350.35
elo1450.581429.79
elo momentum (last 5)3.89-34.79
eye test v1-0.56-1.09
eye trend v1-0.430.30
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.80
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.69β€”
league points38.0031.00
league rank13.0023.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)60.6043.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.14
season ppg1.311.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.20-8.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.006.80
skill v10.45-1.03
solidity v1-0.80-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.60
squad ageβ€”27.40
state index-0.31-1.09
sterile dominance v11.370.11
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.120.15
threat rate (last 5)0.150.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80
xg against avg (last 5)2.071.78
xg for avg (last 5)1.180.90