← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Exeter win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ed Turns · Exeter |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 77' | 🟨 | Liam Oakes · Exeter |
| 88' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1471.12 | 1441.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.31 | 10.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 38.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.31 |