← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 59% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Barnsley win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Barnsley −0.75 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 32' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 77' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1519.63 | 1453.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.98 | 11.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| league points | 52.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.75 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.89 |