← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: D. Baines
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 38% | 2.40 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 34% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Reading |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jeriel Dorsett · Reading |
| 69' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1494.40 | 1580.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.48 | 3.62 |
| eye test v1 | -1.63 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.03 |