← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 12:31 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Burton win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 6' | ⚽ | Ethon Archer · Port Vale |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ben Waine · Port Vale |
| 36' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
| 40' | 🟨 | George Hall · Port Vale |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sulyman Krubally · Burton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Connor Hall · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 5.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1472.42 | 1474.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.51 | -6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.73 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.94 |