← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 12:31 PM UTC · ref: R. Eley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Bradford win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bradford −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Bradford |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jake Richards · Luton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Josh Neufville · Bradford |
| 55' | ⚽ | Shayden Morris · Luton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1513.97 | 1582.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.18 | -19.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| league points | 42.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.97 |
| solidity v1 | -0.00 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.40 | — |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 231.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.99 |