← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.70 |
| Northampton win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Barnsley −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Northampton |
| 4' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 30' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
| 58' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 71' | ⚽ | Max Dyche · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Kelly · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days | 186.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1523.82 | 1449.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.49 | -36.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.07 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |