← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 12' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 38' | 🟨 | Connor Hall · Port Vale |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel · Port Vale |
| 88' | ⚽ | Callum Maycock · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days |
| 186.00 |
| 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1484.17 | 1482.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.29 | -9.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |