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Peterboro 2–3 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Swabey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win42%2.20
Peterboro win32%2.85
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro +0.2552%1.85
Huddersfield +0.2548%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Archie Collins · Peterboro
25'🟨George Nevett · Peterboro
27'⚽Lasse Sorensen · Huddersfield
30'🟨Donay O'Brien-Brady · Peterboro
47'⚽Radinio Balker · Huddersfield
49'🟨Ryan Ledson · Huddersfield
57'🟨James Dornelly · Peterboro
59'🟨Tom Lees · Peterboro
64'⚽Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
76'🟨Dion Charles · Huddersfield
79'🟨Marcus Harness · Huddersfield
85'⚽James Dornelly · Peterboro
89'⚽Cameron Humphreys · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots16
3On target6
7Corners4
9Fouls9
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.570.68
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days
183.00
183.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.360.52
elo1538.201543.92
elo momentum (last 5)1.87-5.68
eye test v1-0.64-0.20
eye trend v1-0.75-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)57.0059.50
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.50
keeper form v10.73β€”
league points38.0045.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0070.80
possession avg (last 5)60.2044.60
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.260.22
season ppg1.361.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.60
skill v10.29-0.56
solidity v1-1.240.45
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
squad ageβ€”25.36
state index-0.10-0.04
sterile dominance v11.24-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.120.25
threat rate (last 5)0.170.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)2.281.06
xg for avg (last 5)0.991.55