← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 46% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Exeter −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ethan Brierley · Exeter |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Harry Gray · Rotherham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Shaun McWilliams · Rotherham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days |
| 183.00 |
| 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1554.81 | 1467.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.92 | -24.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 44.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 37.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.97 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.45 |