← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 52% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| Burton win | 22% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cardiff +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 30' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dylan Williams · Burton |
| 46' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 63' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 4.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1484.49 | 1579.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.15 | 36.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.14 |