← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Humphries
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bolton +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Corey Blackett-Taylor · Bolton |
| 60' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1377.59 | 1511.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | 10.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 27.11 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.54 |