← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Exeter win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 45' | ⚽ | Will Keane · Reading |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jeriel Dorsett · Reading |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luca Woodhouse · Exeter |
| 75' | ⚽ | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 79' | 🟨 | Haydon Roberts · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timur Tutierov · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Woodhouse · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 179.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1502.17 | 1465.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.43 | 56.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 31.41 | — |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.53 |