← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
| Northampton win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Harry Gray · Rotherham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Harry Gray · Rotherham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Adegboyega · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 179.00 |
| 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1458.75 | 1470.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.83 | -22.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | -1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.27 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |