← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 40% | 2.50 |
| Mansfield win | 32% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 20' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 179.00 |
| 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1485.29 | 1554.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.06 | 59.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -1.27 |
| solidity v1 | 1.61 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.83 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 1.65 |