← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Parkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Bradford win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Lincoln −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Bradford |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adam Reach · Lincoln |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 179.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1633.69 | 1588.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.27 | -27.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |