← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 62% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Burton win | 14% | 6.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Burton −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Bolton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 179.00 |
| 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1576.20 | 1490.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.45 | -34.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 46.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 4.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |