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Blackpool 1–2 Stockport

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Tue, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Speedie

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win47%1.96
Draw27%3.40
Blackpool win25%3.70

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool +0.556%1.83
Stockport +0.544%2.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.85
Over49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Kyle Wootton · Stockport
33'⚽Jack Diamond · Stockport
62'🟨Ben Osborn · Stockport
65'🟨Jordan Brown · Blackpool
90'⚽Josh Bowler · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
6Shots22
1On target9
2Corners10
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolStockport
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.810.72
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days179.00179.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1544.401640.08
elo momentum (last 5)-17.97-3.07
eye test v1-0.00-0.77
eye trend v1-0.11-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)47.6060.50
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.74β€”
league points32.0046.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank9.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2075.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4055.20
rest days3.203.30
scorer concentration0.370.39
season ppg1.191.70
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.80
skill v1-0.01-0.18
solidity v10.220.91
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
state index-0.000.34
sterile dominance v10.220.39
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.220.90
xg for avg (last 5)1.630.98