← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Mansfield win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Stevenage −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 49' | 🟨 | Beryly Lubala · Stevenage |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Mansfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chem Campbell · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 663.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1462.97 | 1467.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.06 | 47.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -1.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.47 |