← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Exeter win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Exeter |
| 28' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 59' | ⚽ | — · Exeter |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 75' | ⚽ | Cameron Humphreys · Port Vale |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days |
| 176.00 |
| 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1486.15 | 1537.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.17 | 31.41 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |