← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Luton win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Luton +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Plymouth |
| 71' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kornél Szűcs · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 176.00 |
| 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 4.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1475.68 | 1522.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.86 | 44.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.74 |