← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Stockport win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stockport −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 49' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 74' | 🟨 | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Josh Stokes · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 176.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1582.27 | 1553.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.29 | 4.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 55.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.33 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.34 |