← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Corlett, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Burton win | 15% | 6.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Burton −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alfie Lloyd · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 174.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1557.49 | 1404.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.10 | -4.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 49.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -1.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.21 |