← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Plymouth win | 26% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Plymouth −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Thomas O'Connor · Peterboro |
| 6' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 23' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro |
| 55' | 🟨 | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 56' | 🟨 | Matthew Garbett · Peterboro |
| 58' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Peterboro |
| 67' | 🟨 | Archie Collins · Peterboro |
| 89' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Peterboro |
| 89' | 🟥 | Peter Kioso |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1461.46 | 1460.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.61 | 14.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.69 |