← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 39% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.85 |
| Lincoln win | 30% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Luton −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 22' | ⚽ | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 35' | ⚽ | Gideon Kodua · Luton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ivan Varfolomeev · Lincoln |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nahki Wells · Luton |
| 46' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 49' | 🟨 | Cohen Bramall · Luton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1520.64 | 1630.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.97 | 40.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 13.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -2.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.82 |