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Leyton Orient 3–1 Reading

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading win39%2.40
Leyton Orient win35%2.65
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading +053%1.83
Leyton Orient +047%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Andy Yiadom · Reading
39'🟨Charlie Savage · Reading
45'⚽Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient
52'⚽Jack Marriott · Reading
57'🟨Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient
65'⚽Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient
77'🟨Paudie O’Connor · Reading
78'🟨Sean Clare · Leyton Orient
85'⚽Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient
90'🟨Killian Cahill · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots7
5On target1
6Corners1
13Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.550.55
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrisbane Road
coach days169.00169.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.25
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.862.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.07
dominance (last 5)0.440.48
elo1545.211587.01
elo momentum (last 5)-42.5142.84
eye test v1-0.690.09
eye trend v10.06-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)46.4063.00
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v1—0.74
league points29.0035.00
league rank20.0010.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2045.60
rest days7.0013.00
scorer concentration0.330.28
season ppg1.161.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4011.80
skill v1-0.85-0.39
solidity v1-0.440.34
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
state index-0.660.66
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.411.49
xg for avg (last 5)1.131.34