← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Woods, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Stevenage win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ethan Brierley · Exeter |
| 88' | 🟨 | Phoenix Patterson · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 169.00 | 656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1521.01 | 1555.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.91 | -28.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.99 |