← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Durkin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 36% | 2.50 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 35% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Jack Senior · Doncaster |
| 66' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · AFC Wimbledon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 73' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Doncaster |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1388.12 | 1367.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.39 | -32.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.66 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.37 |