← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Bradford win | 32% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 24' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 26' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Bradford |
| 31' | 🟨 | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
| 59' | ⚽ | — · Bradford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Aden Baldwin · Bradford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joe White · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 4.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1612.05 | 1552.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.32 | 30.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 46.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 12.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 1.58 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 276.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.83 |