← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Simon Mather, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Stevenage win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Luton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gideon Kodua · Luton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 162.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1510.79 | 1565.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.07 | 2.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.90 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -1.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.81 |