← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Junior Quitirna · Wycombe |
| 14' | 🟨 | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Wycombe |
| 67' | ⚽ | Niall Huggins · Wycombe |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niall Huggins · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wycombe | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Adams Park |
| coach days | 156.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1581.84 | 1512.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.12 | -6.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.47 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.21 |