← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Yates, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Burton win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Burton −0.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fábio Tavares · Burton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 156.00 |
| 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1444.77 | 1497.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.12 | -7.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.40 |