← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Charles Breakspear, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Peterboro win | 31% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 33' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Archie Collins · Peterboro |
| 45' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro |
| 57' | ⚽ | Adam Reach · Lincoln |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 87' | 🟨 | Justin Obikwu · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days |
| 156.00 |
| 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1619.49 | 1536.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.13 | 46.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| league points | 45.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 1.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 2.26 |