← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Reeves, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Burton win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Reading −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Reading |
| 37' | ⚽ | Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1501.73 | 1409.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.72 | -1.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 31.41 | — |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.39 |