← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 17' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Demetri Mitchell · AFC Wimbledon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zech Obiero · Leyton Orient |
| 69' | ⚽ | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jack Simpson · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfie Lloyd · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1567.35 | 1492.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.01 | -36.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.15 |